Sample wire figures from the demo scenario: a 25 percent electronics tariff puts 47,000 jobs at risk, carries an 89 percent retaliation probability and raises consumer prices 2.3 percent. Closest precedent is the Tudor trade ban of 1493 at an 87 percent match.
The Lead • Tariff Shock Modeling
Washington • July 2026 • Wire Ed.
The markup is Thursday. The three estimates on your desk disagree by a factor of four, and the official score will not land until months after the roll call. TradeShock runs the shock tonight: jobs at risk as a range you can defend, retaliation odds with a timing window, what shoppers pay by year one, plus every scenario filed against 847 documented trade actions going back to 1493.
No point estimates, no single-number guesses. Every figure ships as a stated confidence band, and 78% of realized outcomes in backtesting landed inside the band the model gave. When someone pushes on your number, the band pushes back.
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29,000
Jobs displaced when Henry VII banned trade with the Low Countries in 1493. The oldest fully documented case in the TradeShock archive.
CASE FILE NO. 0001 • TUDOR 1493
25
Countries that retaliated after Smoot-Hawley raised US tariffs on more than 20,000 goods in 1930. World trade fell by roughly two thirds in the years after.
CASE FILE NO. 0214 • SMOOT-HAWLEY 1930
60+
Years the 1963 Chicken Tax on light trucks has remained in effect. Temporary measures have a habit of outliving everyone who voted for them.
CASE FILE NO. 0327 • CHICKEN TAX 1963
BRIEF 01
Sector-level job impact projected over eight quarters, always as a range. When the chair asks where 47,000 came from, you answer: plus or minus 8,200 at 78% confidence, split across five named sectors.
PROOF → Displacement Forecast tab, CI band chart and sector table
BRIEF 02
Every scenario carries a counter-tariff probability and a timing window, with the export categories most likely to be targeted. The demo scenario prices retaliation at 89% within 6 to 12 months.
PROOF → Retaliation panel, exposed exports list per scenario
BRIEF 03
847 documented trade actions from Tudor 1493 to Brexit 2021, each scored for similarity to your scenario. The demo scenario matches the 1493 trade ban at 87% and Smoot-Hawley at 66%.
PROOF → Precedent Archive tab, ranked match scores
In 1493 Henry VII banned trade with the Low Countries, England's largest cloth market, expecting the embargo to hand him bargaining power. It did the opposite. English weavers lost their buyers, Flemish merchants found other suppliers and the crown spent six years unwinding the ban on worse terms than it started with. Henry had advisors too. What he didn't have was anyone who could tell him, before the seal went on, what 29,000 displaced weavers would cost him.
29,000
Jobs displaced
2.4%
Of the workforce
6 yrs
To a treaty
Worse
Final terms
Really the kind of policy you would pursue if you were trying to destroy England's manufacturing, not boost it. Modern economic historian on the 1493 embargo
Advisors who brief leadership before markup and know the first question will be "where did that number come from?"
Supply chain and trade compliance directors deciding sourcing now around a bill that has not passed yet.
Economic researchers and historians working the precedent archive from 1493 forward.
Analysts and journalists who publish on trade policy and cannot afford a number they can't source.
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