DOCKET S-1147 • Tariff Adjustment Act of 2026, Sec. 4 • 25% on
electronics, HS 8471-8473 • China → United States
Brief due Thu 08:00 34 hrs 20 min left
TradeShock terminal workspace for docket S-1147
Estimate Ledger3 outside filings vs run R-0447
The three estimates on this docket disagree by a factor of four. Two omit terms the chair
will ask about. One lands inside the band by accident. Open each filing to see why it
differs before quoting any of them.
Desk note • E. Rodriguez • Tue 20:55
TradeShock run R-0447Filed tonight 21:12 • this
desk
38,800 to 55,200
The band
Central estimate 47,000 over eight quarters. In backtesting, 78% of realized
outcomes landed inside the band the model stated. The band is the number.
Commerce staff memoCirculated Mon • 4 pages
12,400
26,400 below floor
Method
Static input-output table, direct jobs only.
Weights
2019 trade weights, before the sourcing shift to Vietnam.
Omits
Retaliation entirely. Assumes full sourcing substitution inside year
one, which no case in the archive achieved.
Pacific Tech Importers CouncilCommissioned study •
Fri
22,300
16,500 below floor
Method
Survey of 61 member firms, payroll headcount only.
Omits
Logistics, retail and every non-member firm. Roughly 40% of the
exposed workforce is outside the sample frame.
Note
The sponsor opposes the tariff. Flag the interest if quoted.
National Machinists FederationPress release • this
morning
51,000
Inside band
Method
Counts indirect supplier jobs at full weight.
Caution
Lands inside the band, but by luck. It double-counts supplier
payrolls and omits substitution, two errors that roughly cancel at
25%. The method fails at any other rate. Do not cite it as
corroboration.
Four figures, one docket • jobs at risk, thousands
Scenario BenchDocket S-1147 parameters
Scenario parameters
Every figure below recomputes as you drag. Displacement scales sublinearly with
the rate.
HS codes in scope
8471 Computers8517 Telecom8473 Parts
Live estimate at 25%
47,000 ±8,200jobs at risk
89%retaliation odds
+2.3%consumer prices
Filed run R-044725% •
China → US • Tue 21:12
High Risk
Jobs at risk
47,000
band 38,800 to 55,200
Retaliation
89%
window 6 to 12 months
Consumer prices
+2.3%
category avg, year one
Displacement, 8 quarters • shaded band = stated range
⚠ Coverage warning
County-level employment mapping covers 61% of HS 8517 import volume. The telecom
sector split is directional. Do not quote it below the two-digit level in the
brief.
Retaliation WatchCounter-tariff pricing • run R-0447
89%
Odds of counter-tariffs • most likely window 6 to 12 months
0 to 6 mo18%
6 to 12 mo44%
12 to 24 mo27%
No action11%
The question is not whether, it is when and on whom. In 3 of the 5
closest precedents the first counter-tariff landed on agriculture, outside the sector
that started the dispute.
US exports most exposed to counter-tariffs • annual value, $B
Precedent File847 cases • 1493 to present • matched to run R-0447
Tudor Trade War, 1493 to 1499
Henry VII banned trade with the Low Countries expecting favorable terms. English cloth
workers lost their largest market, competitors absorbed the trade and the crown took six
years to negotiate its way back on worse terms than before the embargo. Someone has tried
this before. It is the closest match on file and it went badly.
29,000
Jobs displaced
2.4%
Of workforce
6 yrs
To resolution
Worse
Final terms
Next ranked matches
CASE 0214 • 1930 • 66% MATCH
Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act
The US raised tariffs on more than 20,000 goods. Twenty-five countries retaliated and
the collapse in trade deepened the Great Depression.
Retaliation arrived within 14 months
CASE 0389 • 1985-91 • 58% MATCH
US-Japan Auto Restraints
Voluntary export limits pushed Japanese makers to build transplant factories inside the
US. Outcomes were mixed and prices rose in the interim.
Consumer prices rose about 4% in year two
CASE 0841 • 2021 • 52% MATCH
Brexit Trade Disruption
The UK left the EU single market. Customs friction cut small-exporter volumes and
rerouted supply chains through third countries.
Substitution took 3+ years, not one
CASE 0327 • 1963 • 45% MATCH
The Chicken Tax
A 25% tariff on light trucks answered European poultry duties. It remains in force more
than 60 years later and still shapes the US truck market.
A "temporary" measure, 60+ years on
Markup BriefDraft • due Thu 08:00 • 1 of 4 numbers
pinned
Memo: S-1147 Sec. 4, Electronics Tariff
TO
Director, Budget Analysis Division
FROM
E. Rodriguez, Trade Policy
RE
Employment effect of the Sec. 4 tariff, with sourcing
Pinned findings
No findings pinned yet. Work the Estimate
Ledger, Scenario Bench, Retaliation Watch and Precedent File tabs, then pin each defended
number here.
If the chair pushes back
"Where did that number come from?"
Run R-0447, parameters on file: 25% on HS 8471-8473, China to the US. The
band is the number, 38,800 to 55,200, and 78% of backtested runs landed inside the
band the model stated.
"Why is your figure four times the Commerce memo?"
The memo uses 2019 trade weights, counts direct jobs only and assumes
full sourcing substitution inside year one. No case in the 847-case archive
achieved that. Restore those terms and the memo lands inside our band.
"Has anyone actually tried this before?"
Yes, 847 documented times since 1493. The closest match, at 87%, took six
years to unwind on worse terms than before the embargo.
File the memo with its sourcing appendix
This draft is demo-side and resets on reload. The full terminal exports it with run
parameters, backtest coverage and case citations stapled to every figure, so the
answer to "where did that number come from" leaves the room with the memo. Requests
from .gov and .edu addresses are reviewed first.